DivX Looks Outside The Codec For The Future Of Web Video

May 7th, 2008 Davis

DivXDivX reported their 1st quarter earnings on Monday and while I’m still waiting to read the actual 10k before digging too far into the numbers, I did want to comment on what I see as a significant shift in strategy. Over the last 7 years, DivX has done an impressive job of building an eco-system around a single file format. The first time that I came across a DivX file, I actually thought that it was some kind of a virus. It took me two weeks before I worked up the courage to download the DivX media player so that I could play the movie, but once I did, I realized that my fears were unfounded. The file not only offered a superior video experience, but it was a lot smaller than the MPEG files that I was used to downloading. Since I was on a dial-up connection at the time, every little byte made a big difference.

As the P2P networks developed, DivX and it’s open source cousin XviD, became an important resource for file sharers. Initially, my own interest in DivX was driven by it’s technological advantages over other video formats, as well as the wide availability of DivX content on the grey market, but as compression technology has evolved, my reasons for using DivX have changed as well. Since I’m no longer on a dial-up network, compression is less important then what I can actually do with my videos.

As DivX gained in popularity, they were able to forge agreements with consumer electronic manufacturers that allowed you to play DivX files on a wide range of devices. Even though, H.264 is a superior standard for internet video, I still prefer DivX files because I know that I’ll be able to play them on the hardware devices that I own.

By creating an eco-system that supports portability, DivX has been able to lock me into their format in the same way that Apple has been able to use iTunes to keep their customers buying iPods instead of mp3 players.

As H.264, Microsoft, Apple and Adobe all continue to creep into DivX’s territory, there has been a lot of concern over how DivX would respond to these competing threats. Microsoft’s approach has been to batten down the hatches by developing their proprietary Silverlight codec. By retaining full control over the video format, they are able to convince people to buy as many Microsoft supported products as possible. These extra restrictions increase the appeal of Silverlight for DRM hungry Hollywood studios, but it also frustrates their customers in the process. Incompatible file formats are the reason why services like Netflix’s Watch Now doesn’t get along with Apple. Since Microsoft (and Apple) refuse to open up their codecs, it gives them a monopoly on the hardware that is allowed to support their video files.

Apple has at least opened up their system a little bit by adding support for the H.264 format, but they’ve still chosen to wrap their h.264 files inside of the Quicktime container. This prevents other companies from supporting Apple H.264 content, without obtaining a license for Quicktime first. This helps to open up Apple’s eco-system to alternative video formats, but still gives Apple control over the companies that are allowed to play nice with their your media.

Similarly, Adobe has also forged agreements to support H.264 inside of flash, but if you want to take your Flash H.264 files portable, you’ll need a device that can support the Flash format. To their credit, Adobe has done a good job of building momentum for downloadable flash by supporting open source initiatives, a new DRM system, and by removing license fees for mobile providers, but despite their early traction with these efforts, there are still very few hardware devices that are actually capable of playing portable flash content.

With so many companies pursuing proprietary video strategies, one would expect DivX to be focusing on locking consumers into the DivX format, but like most things having to do with DivX, their strategy for dealing with the next generation of codecs is also built on a system of openness.

We got our first real glimpse of this strategy last November when DivX announced that they had acquired Mainconcept for $22 - $28 million. The Mainconcept acquisition gave DivX an immediate footprint in the H.264 space, but it also raised some important questions about how DivX could maintain a monopoly on their community, while supporting a format that is widely available to competitors.

Interestingly enough, while discussing H.264 on their latest conference call, DivX CEO Kevin Hell pointed out that the current state of H.264 really isn’t all that different from the MPEG-4 standard that DivX was built on.

“Looking forward, a real opportunity exists for DivX to emerge as the consumer face of H.264, serving as a trusted brand for users who don’t want to concern themselves with underlying formats or technologies. In fact, the current H.264 market resembles in many ways the early stages of MPEG-4 market.

When DivX first emerged seven years ago there were number of different and incompatible MPEG-4 implementations available. Through our strong consumer adoption and the creation of the DivX certification program, we were able to simplify the experience for consumers and provide a solution that just works across any device. We plan to repeat that strategy by incorporating broad H.264 support into both our software and consumer electronics offerings under the DivX brand. We are on track to release a new version of our software in 2008 that supports H.264 and then extend that support to consumer electronic devices that are likely to hit the market in 2009. We believe that this development will help move the DivX brand beyond one single format and toward promise of support for any video content, on any device.”

DivX’s evolution towards H.264 won’t be a clean and easy transition, but it is the right direction for the company. If they can successfully integrate H.264 into their certification program, it will reduce the threat of their codec becoming obsolete and will highlight their certification process as being the real value added for consumer device manufacturers.

Instead of trying to educate consumers on the differences between MPEG-4 Part 2 vs. MPEG-4 AVC (H.264), CE manufacturers can slap the DivX label onto their devices and consumers will know that it will support their digital video libraries without complications. In fact, during the Q&A section of their conference call, DivX discussed the possibility of pushing this envelope even further by adding Flash support to their certification program.

“In terms of how we think about Flash more broadly, the vast majority of content that is downloaded today is in DivX format or variations of the DivX format, so we don’t see that as being a threat in terms of the use case that we’re really providing, which is high quality content delivered through the internet and then played back on a variety of devices. To the extent that Flash starts to get traction in terms of files that are downloaded at high quality and based on the terms, it would be something that we could actually extend into and offer into our certification program as well and that’s what we’d be looking to do.”

Part of what makes DivX such a difficult company to pin down, is their ability to take competitors and turn them into partners. On one hand, Microsoft is one of the biggest threats to DivX, but if they can get them to extend DivX support to the Xbox, they could become an important customer.

Adobe is currently using Mainconcept to power their H.264 support, but they are also trying to establish their own format as the new standard for internet delivered video. These complex relationships are enough to make anyone’s head spin, but DivX has a way of getting their partners to look at the glass half full side of the equation.

On one hand, It’s hard for me to believe that Adobe would be all that enthusiastic about giving up control over their flash content, but on the other hand, a DivX partnership would create a powerful competitor to Apple and Microsoft’s closed systems.

Adobe would gain access to an established community of video fans and would have one more platform that could drive demand for Flash content. Instead of having to worry about the lack of downloadable flash content, they could leverage DivX’s popularity, while slowly introducing their own standard for web video. While I doubt that older DivX devices would be able to support Flash with a firmware update, any new DivX devices would be able to support their content.

For DivX, they would be able to increase the appeal of their brand by offering support for the next generation of internet video. They could also use Adobe DRM as a way of bypassing studio approval for DivX content. While DivX did mention plans to update their DRM later this year, getting in through Adobe’s backdoor could be a lot easier than buying off the studios. According to DivX’s 4th quarter 10k filing, they paid Sony $1.5 million and gave them 100,000 warrants at a strike price of $16.14, in order to get the studio to bless the DivX format. While it’s possible that DivX plans on buying off all of the studios, this could get expensive really quick, if DivX is serious about going legit.

For consumers, it would be the biggest win of all. Instead of being locked into a single file format, they would have the flexiblity to adopt alternative standards without having to abandon their current media libraries. This would pressure Microsoft and Apple to open up their hardware, instead of maintaining data silos.

It’s hard to judge how serious DivX is about adopting flash support from just a few comments, but even beyond flash, having support for multi-formats adds real value to their brand. As new forms of digital transmission unfold, DivX is in a position to attach their brand to a much larger category of web video.

Some of the niche video formats don’t have the ability to negotiate partnerships with the device manufacturers directly, but through DivX could gain access to a much larger audience. If DivX certification suddenly meant that Matroska containers could play on DivX devices, it would open up another community that DivX could tap into and it would change how Matroska fans think about the DivX brand.

Bringing other formats into the DivX program, would add to DivX’s cost of revenue, but it would make DivX certification more valuable to their CE partners. I may enjoy dissecting the nuances between the various competing video formats, but most consumers don’t want to think about it. They want to be able to play whatever file they have without converting it into a single format. By focusing on supporting as many formats as possible, DivX may end up competing with their own eco-system, but they’ll also expand their reach in the process. By taking DivX beyond the codec, it allows their community to move forward with the future, while hanging onto the treasures from the past.

Disclosure - I own shares of Netflix

Posted in Technology, DivX, SA, TV, VOD, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, DRM, Netflix | 2 Comments »

MovieBeam Rises From The Dead - Again

May 5th, 2008 Davis

moviebeam.jpg

Just when you thought it was safe to salvage your Moviebeam box for spare parts, there’s new hope on the horizon that Moviebeam may once again be coming to a television screen near you. Like a zombie from a bad horror flick, Moviebeam continues to rise from the dead feasting on the rotted brains of media moguls and venture capitalists with each new incarnation.

According to the Daily Bankruptcy Review, Movie Gallery has asked for bankruptcy court approval to sell their VOD service to Dar Capital Limited at a $2.25 million price tag.

“Movie Gallery pulled the plug on its-on-demand movie service, called MovieBeam, in December as part of its restructuring under Chapter 11 protection. Dar Capital Limited has agreed to buy MovieBeam, which had about 1,800 subscribers at the time it was shut down. The service required customers to purchase a television set-top box that allowed them to order films for between $1.99 and $4.99. Movie Gallery said in court papers filed Thursday that it began shopping the MovieBeam business soon after shuttering the service and that 14 parties showed an interest in the company. Dar Capital is picking up MovieBeam’s remaining assets, which include certain trademarks and intellectual property associated with the business.”

While the resurrection of Moviebeam will be welcome news for the 1,800 customers who initially ponied up the dough for a box, the sale of the service represents another bitter defeat for Movie Gallery. Just last year, they paid $10 million for the service. Initially, they had hoped to use Moviebeam to strengthen their digital strategy, but when they couldn’t convince in store customers to invest in yet another set top box, they shuttered the money losing service and cut off the early adopters who had plunked down hard earned cash for the box.

If the courts do allow the sale to take place, I’m not convinced that Dar Capital will have much luck in performing CPR on this one. Moviebeam fatal flaw was that that it suffered from a lack of choice and I don’t see this being any less of an issue for Dar Capital. If consumers could get access to everything on demand, paying an upfront fee wouldn’t be as much of a big deal, but with a miniscule selection of movies, it’s hard to justify spending money on a box, especially when you still have to pay for the content.

Even at the heavily discounted price of $2.25 million, this still means that Dar Capital will be paying $1,250 per subscriber. At this cost, they may be better off subsidizing the cost of 2,000 boxes and starting their own service. Then again, it’s entirely possible that Dar Capital is more interested in the bandwidth agreements, then the actual customer base. Moviebeam delivers their movies by piggybacking on PBS’ bandwidth.

Last week, Sezmi launched their wunderbox with promises of a bandwidth delivery system that sounds eeriely similar to the one that Moviebeam implemented. Given the amount of bandwidth that Sezmi will need to deliver on their high definition promises, it wouldn’t surprise me if Dar Capital flips Moviebeam’s bandwidth, instead of turning the service back on. It’s still too early to know what Dar Capital’s end game will actually be, but we should know more on May 8th when Movie Gallery is due back in court.

Posted in Technology, Movies, TV, VOD | No Comments »

TiVo Kills In 3D

May 1st, 2008 Davis

Posted in VOD, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, TiVo | No Comments »

Grand Theft Gamestop

April 25th, 2008 Davis

Grand Theft GameStop

Over the last year, I’ve been drooling over the new GTA and with less then a week before the launch, I’m starting to really get fired up. I’ve been playing GTA since it was a PC download only and with every new release the game gets better and better. When Rockstar ran their first trailer for the game, I immediately went to their site to reserve a copy. When I saw that overnight shipping was an extra $20! I canceled the order and decided to go the retail route instead.

I don’t buy a ton of games, but when I do it’s almost exclusively from Gamestop. Normally, I care more about price then brand recognition, but over the years certain brands have won my loyalty and Gamestop is one of them. Whenever I visit their stores, the employees are always really friendly and give great advice on which games to buy. Gamestop is one of those rare places where an employee will actually try to talk you out of a sale, if you try to buy a game that blows.

Since getting to Gamestop can be a bit of a hassle for me, I wanted to reserve a copy over the internet and then pick it up at a local store on the street date. Unfortunately, when I visited the Gamestop website, they were happy to let me pre-order the game, but only if I wanted it shipped to me. When I called my local Gamestop, they told me that I had to physically visit the store if I wanted to reserve a local copy.

Given that Gamestop’s core demographic is hyper connected to the web, I’m surprised that they would be so technologically backwards. It could be that they sell more games when they make people visit the store twice, but it’s not a very customer friendly strategy, especially with gas prices being what they are. Since I’m not willing to take two trips to a store (even for a brand I like), I ended up going to Best Buy’s website instead. From there I was not only able to pre-order the game, but I was also able to find a store near my home where I can pick it up. All without having to unplug from the internet.

Shopping at Best Buy always makes me feel scuzzy because they treat me like a shoplifter when I try to buy video games there, but in this digital age, I’m willing to give up brand loyalty for the convenience of the web. Losing my transaction won’t hurt GameStop, but I can’t help but wonder how many other people choose a competitor over a separate trip to Gamespot.

Gamestop told me that they have their in store pre-order policy in place for “security reasons”, but that doesn’t really make any sense. They allow you to purchase things with a credit card off of the internet, but they won’t allow you to put down a $5 deposit for pre-orders? If Best Buy can offer this type of convenience then GameStop should be able to come up with a better solution too. I still plan on stopping into GameStop when I’m itching for a new game, but they’ll miss out on the games that I know I’m going to buy, long before they even come out.

Posted in Video Games | 2 Comments »

Stage6 Part Deux?

April 24th, 2008 Davis

In a Bob Dylan State of MindOver the past few days buzz has been building over the possible launch of a Stage6 clone. According to the DivxIT.net website, a Stage6 “alternative/clone” will be revealed on April 29th. If this is true, it would be an exciting development for fans who still crave the high quality Stage6 experience.

This isn’t the first time that someone has tried to hype the launch of a Stage6 replacement. As soon as Stage6 announced their shut down, there was a flurry of fake Stage6 clone announcements. Most of those sites fizzled out before they even got started.

NewStage6.com
was the first “replacement” to pop up on my radar. Initially they had a timer counting down until their launch, but today, the site is all but empty. Highlol.com was another website that tried to create buzz around the Stage6 collapse. They promised free HD DivX downloads, but there still aren’t any videos on the site today.

Having already been burned a couple of times, you can understand why I tend to be skeptical about these sorts of promises. With DivX Inc. having come out and denied any affiliation with the site, I can’t help but wonder how far they will let this get before they try to shut it down. On the other hand, because DivX benefits from having more of their content out there, maybe they are really better off ignoring it. Still, if DivxIT does gain traction, DivX might not be so happy about someone copying their site, especially when they don’t seem willing to sell it to begin with. If DivX does try to go the hostile route, I think that they may be up against more than they realize.

According to my sources, the creator of DivxIT is a part of the social revolution group, Anonymous. I wasn’t able to confirm whether DivxIT is the brainchild of a solitary fan or if it is part of the larger movement, but I do think its worth noting that Stage6 was hacked earlier this year. Whoever hacked the site posted membership information online, but I don’t know whether or not they would had access to the GUI. April 29th may still end up being a bust or just a cheap knock off, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this turns out to be an exact replica of the Stage6 website.

I was also able to learn that prior to setting his sights on web video, DivxIT’s mystery founder also created the MyVideoTab.com website. MVT looks like a great resource for anyone who is interested in learning how to play cover songs off of the internet, but its ownership is also shrouded in mystery.

Even before Stage6 shut down, there was already a Stage6 clone in China, but trying to watch videos from the US brings back terrible flashbacks of 26k dial up connections. If I was going to launch my own clone, I would have gone with the 6egats.com ;) domain instead, but someone beat me to that one already. We may end up getting punked with some wacky Scientology video on the 29th, but it will be interesting to see how this ends up playing out.

Update - So much for my conspiracies about black helicopters. It looks like DivxIT and DivX have worked out a deal for the new site. DivX must have asked them to change the name to something less confusing though because the new site will now be launched at Vreel.net. The launch was also postponed until May 6. On the Vreel website they have a FAQ where they say that their “database will be built from the ground up from day one onwards.” They also thank DivX for being cool about working out a deal with them.

Posted in SA, DivX, VOD | 2 Comments »

Inmate Sues Over No HD TiVos

April 11th, 2008 Davis

Read this doc on Scribd: Riches Vs. HDTV & TiVo

On the same day that TiVo was celebrating another legal win over Dish, they also learned of new lawsuit against them. Jonathan Riches has sued TiVo and some mysterious entity know as “HDTV” over the lack of HD TiVo in his jail cell. TiVo may end up needing to take Dish all the way to the Supreme Court to win their feud, but don’t bet on Riches suit getting quite as far. He’s already sued TiVo once before and had the case quickly dismissed. In fact over the last year, Riches has seen over 1,000 of his bogus lawsuits thrown out of court. I can understand how the losing access to TiVo’s sweet HDTV goodness might be uncomfortable, but I’m not convinced that it rises to the level of unconstitutionality.

What do you think is life without TiVo cruel and unusual punishment? (for dramatic effect)

Posted in TV, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, TiVo | 2 Comments »

Don’t Follow Leaders Watch The Parkin’ Meters

April 4th, 2008 Davis

Posted in Music | 3 Comments »

Redbox Quitely Testing Hand Gun Kiosks

April 1st, 2008 Davis

After pulling their R rated movies from all McDonald’s locations, Redbox has come up with a creative solution for filling the inventory void left behind. Instead of stocking their popular Redbox kiosks with more G rated movies, they’ve decided to jump into a new market and will begin renting 9mm hand guns at their popular $1 per night price point. In a statement to the Inside Redbox blog, Redbox PR spokeperson Tommy G describes the program as a way to make Redbox customers feel safer at some of their “rougher” Redbox locations.

“with recent reports of violence at some of our ‘rougher’ locations, Redbox wanted to help ensure our customers’ safety so, we added this option in some of these areas to test out the idea. It is unfortunate that this customer found out about this before it was ready to be released to the public. Rest assured that we are doing everything we can to make our customers’ experience at Redbox the best it can be.”

It’s hard to know how popular handgun rentals will be, but if Redbox has success with the program, I bet we’ll see Netflix work out a loaner program with the post office to compete.

Posted in Kiosks, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Netflix | 1 Comment »

The Moon Rises On TiVo Japan

April 1st, 2008 Davis

The House Of The Rising Moon

As someone who lives in the United States, it’s easy to forget that TiVo isn’t available everywhere. Over the last few years, we’ve seen TiVo support expanded to Canada, Mexico, China and pretty soon Australia, but TiVo’s international expansion hasn’t come without its fair share of head fakes.

Early on in their history, TiVo tried to bring the TiVolution to Britain, but the initiative proved too costly and they later withdrew support to focus on North America. For a long time, I thought that TiVo would stick exclusively to the US market, but about three years ago, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun announced that TiVo was trying to form a Japanese partnership and had plans to launch a version of TiVo in Japan, beginning in early 2007.

2007 came and went and while TiVo has achieved significant progress on their international expansion, they never mentioned the TiVo Japan partnership again. After failing to launch the service in 07′, I had given up all hope of seeing TiVo in Japan, but after a long slumber, it appears that the sun the moon has once again risen on the TiVo Japan website.

Instead of announcing new plans for a Japanese service though, the website has apparently been hacked by a group who is upset about an upcoming advertising program by TiVo. If you go to the TiVo.jp website, they’ve posted a warning about plans by TiVo to disable fast forwarding capabilities on their sponsors’ commercials. In a statement condemning the program, the hackers have vowed to retain control over the site until TiVo agrees to a forthcoming list of their demands.

“We at the Japanese branch of the Television Internet Video Organization (TIVO.jp) believe that fast forwarding through bad content is a fundamental right that every human being should have access to. It shouldn’t matter whether you live in Alviso, California or Yamanashi Japan, we dream of a world where ad skipping is available to everyone.

With TiVo silently plotting to take away our fast forwarding capabilities, we felt that we had no choice, but to strike back by taking control over the TiVo Japan website. Our hope is that TiVo will reconsider their anti-ad skipping stance and will agree to reinstate our ability to blow past bad commercials.”

While I applaud TiVo for trying to come up with an innovative way to reward their shareholders, I can’t help but wonder how popular fast forward blocking will be with TiVo’s customers. It’s likely that this may be an April Fool’s joke by TiVo and that they may be having some fun with their own website, but somehow I doubt that they would Goatse their customers with a faux protest. The site has an RSS feed and I’ll be tuning in for more announcements. I don’t think that we’re any closer to seeing TiVo DVRs in Japan, but at least the website has new content.

Posted in Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, TiVo | 2 Comments »

The Recluse

March 28th, 2008 Davis

Posted in Music, VOD | No Comments »