Anders Bylund with Ars Technica picked up on a news report by the BBC where Sonos CEO John McFarlane has suggested that the Digital Home may still be at least a decade away from being a reality. In the article, he points to broadband penetration in the UK preventing growth as well as a lack of mainstream appeal for the digital home. In the article, McFarlane claims that “”The digital home has been talked about for a long time but it’s only just starting to happen.” he then elaborates further by stating that “there needs to be enough digital content and the understanding of the technology before the work can get started.”
While I would agree with McFarlane that there has been a lot of buzz around the digital home, I might disagree with his statement that there isn’t enough digital content to drive a digital revolution. Now granted I’m an early adopter, but when I think about my own media habits, I can’t even imagine going back to an analog world.
At this point in my life, I’ve digitized my entire MP3 collection and have them stored on external drives. I’ve scanned every photo that I’ve ever taken and added it to my digital library along with the countless digital images that I’m producing now. I’ve substited the blogosphere and the web over subscription newspapers that I used to read frequently. My television habit has changed dramatically in that I now time shift everything and have the option to place shift, if I’d only breakdown and buy a laptop. Recently, when I went to find a new apartment in San Francisco, instead of relying on newspaper ads, I instead opted to use electronic ads on Craigslist. If I needed to locate an apartment, instead of turning to Thomas Guide I turned to Yahoo! maps. Instead of using a phone to contact people, I now use VOIP through Skype. In fact in thinking about my life, I don’t know that there is much that I now do that is not digitally connected in one way or another. This is what makes his comment about there not being enough digital content sound kind of funny to me. In my life there is no shortage of digital content and as I’ve built up more and more content, the need to have a digital home has become increasingly clear.
While I understand that his comments are really focused more on the mainstream, I still think that he is underestimating the potential that all of these forces play in driving consumer adoption of the digital home. For the time being consumers might not be aware of all of their options, but with the TiVo series 3 coming out and the growing popularity for things like Microsoft’s Media Center plugin, Harmony, which lets you control security cameras, heating, lighting, etc., I can’t help but think that the digital home is going to be here a lot sooner then a decade from now.
It may be that my early adopter mindset prevents me from believing that it will take a full decade for the digital home to catch on, but in looking at all of these digital pieces falling together, I can’t help but believe that the digital convergence is closer then when McFarlane might think.
#1 by Mark on September 19, 2006 - 4:00 pm
Hello Davis,
I read your recent post at Alpha, regarding Apple and Google – can the “iTV” device make it or no?
Indeed, the image quality that hovers between broadcast TV and DVD quality is nothing to write home about, but millions of Mac folk will get the ball rolling regardless.
Ouside of this niche loyalty what will Apple need to win in this market?
1a. Download speed. Unfortunately, this is not available for most to do HD downloads. I have fiber to my home, so it is easily possible for me, but most have cable, and past 7 PM, most might as well go the route of a modem – good night Comcast!
1b. Apple however gets this, while many columnists seem to be missing the boat. “Who is going to wait 30 minutes to download a movie!? For HD, who is going to wait 1 hour and 30 minutes to download a flick!?” The point is missed. If I must wait 10 – 15 minutes to begin watching my HD movie, so be it. It still beats going to Blockbuster, and like many, I don’t plan on what I will watch a day or two in advance and do the mail-order thing. I want what I want, and I want it now. The internet age, taking selfishness a step futher…
2. “iTV” will debut with two features, well three really, that Steve didn’t show off.
#2 by davis on September 19, 2006 - 5:00 pm
Hey Mark,
In all fairness, the Apple post was actually written by Thomas Hawk and not myself (seeking alpha accidently gave me the credit), but I actually agree with a lot of what Hawk says. HDTV is going to drive the future of television and even the phone companies that have installed your super fast FIOS understand this and are implementing HDTV content on demand. Of all the companies out there I think that Comcast, Verizon and AT&T are better positioned then anyone to take advantage of this trend.
Over the last year, we’ve seen several $300 iDongle movie devices come out and none have taken off. There will be blind loyalty by the Appleheaded Mac fans, but lets be honest, people don’t want to pay $300 to hook up a computer to their TV that then makes them pay per download. If Steve Jobs would get with the program and implement a TV tuner into the device then I would say watch out, but without the tuner, there is no HDTV content and without the HDTV content, this device is set to be a flop.
Finally, in your comments you rightly point out the limitations of bandwidth and HDTV. This is why we won’t see HDTV on demand anytime soon. I do think though that you ignore the advanced file compression of Divx and it’s potential to download content significantly faster then Apple’s proprietary format. I also think that you’ve over estimated the capabilities of an 802.11 wireless connection. It seems funny to hear you say that iDongle will suceed because you can’t get the bandwidth to stream HDTV on a FIOS connection, but then to try and say that it will suceed because you can stream it wirelessly? I would encourage you to talk to someone who understands the bandwidth capabilities of an 802.11 connection and encourage you to reconsider your thoughts on the product.