Microsoft Killing Sony In Console War

July 21st, 2006 Davis


Rubber Ducky

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Microsoft reported their earnings today and one of the things they discussed were the number of Xbox 360’s that they’ve sold. While it hasn’t been a secret that this has been one of the hottest toys out there this year, I was still actually surprised to see that they had managed to sell 5 million boxes to date with 1.8 million of them coming from the last quarter.

This is such a huge improvement over their original Xbox sales when they were forced to play catch up with the Playstation. For a long time, Sony has dominated the console industry and Microsoft’s gamble into gaming hasn’t always been well received. With a one year head start against Sony though, I believe that they’ve now built a lead that Sony can’t surpass. Between the extremely high pricing on the PS3 and the year long head start, Microsoft may finally have the momentum that they need to crack one of Sony’s most important footholds in the consumer electronic’s industry.

I’ve owned an Xbox 360 pretty much since the launch and while I’ve been disappointed with the lack of selection when it comes to games, as well as some of the networking functionality, I’ve been very pleased with the gameplay and graphics that I’ve seen. So far my favorite game has been Hitman: Blood Money, which should have been rated for adults, but squeeked by with a mature rating. Nothing like coming home from a hard day at the office to take out the garbage man, steal his uniform and murder the neighbors, and people thought Grand Theft Auto was naughty . . .

Posted in Video Games | 6 Comments »

The Last American Hero

July 20th, 2006 Davis


The Last American Hero
The Last American Hero
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Is NBC Running An Illegal Lottery?

July 20th, 2006 Davis

Historically, I’ve probably been a little too harsh with the networks and the studios. It’s been a tough dilemna because for me because on one hand I love TV more then anyone I know, but on the other hand they’ve been so resistant to change that it’s tough to support them. Just the thought of not having access to pure HDTV digital joy makes me very uncomfortable. Part of why I’ve been so tough with the networks has been because they’ve stifled innovation at every opportunity. Whether it’s been the extra one minute that they’ve added to the programming or the countless “TiVo proof” ads that I still seem to avoid, they’ve been pretty desperate in their attempts to continue to force consumers to watch TV according to their rules. While I understand that advertising is necessary to support the programming that I enjoy, I also think that there are times that the studios go way too far in trying to force ads on consumers.

Such is the case with NBC’s latest promotion on their summer hit Treasure Hunters. After watching a few of the shows, I can tell you that it’s very entertaining, but as a PVR viewer, I get the sense that they could care less if they had my business. In an attempt to combat time shifting by consumers, NBC has initated a promotion where they allow viewers to answer trivia questions via their cell phones or the web, but only if they happen to be watching live. The idea behind the promotion is to give consumers an added incentive to tune in live, instead of time shifting (and ad skipping) their program.

While I fully support NBC’s efforts to try and evolve their antiquated advertising business model, I can’t help but wonder if they’ve crossed the line between bad marketing and illegal behavior with this promotion. It’s not the $10,000 giveaway or the voting that I object to, but if you do happen to participate in their live contest using your cell phone, they charge you a .99 cent fee for voting. Now technically, there is a way you can vote through NBC’s website, but most of their promotion focuses on the text messaging. In looking at the program, I have to imagine that they are actually turning a profit on the participation of viewers. Last year, Fox’s American Idol was able to draw an amazing 41 million text messages for their favorite idol. Considering that Fox wasn’t even giving anything away, I think it’s a fair assumption that NBC is getting more then 10,000 text messages on their Treasure Hunters promotion.

If consumers have a less then 1 in 10,000 shot of winning and they are paying .99 cents per vote, I have to question whether this is a “giveaway” as much as it is a new revenue opportunity for NBC. While I like the idea of letting cell phone users pay for my programming, if they receive anywhere near the response that Fox has received, then NBC has essentially figured out a way to print money. Even with half the response to American Idol, NBC would still pick up $20 million dollars for their $10,000 “prize.”

I can respect NBC wanting to help pay for the show, but the whole scheme sounds like gambling to me. While they do provide a “free” way to enter their contest, the truth of the matter is that if they are taking in more then $10,000 per show, then something seems very unethical about this particular promotion, especially considering that advertisers are paying them more to convince these consumers to tune in live. Now I’m sure that they’ve had their attorneys look it over and technically this might not be a lottery, but if you actually calculate the odds, I have a funny feeling that this is much worse. In the end I’m going to choose to defer to my Father’s advice when it comes to the lottery, the best way to win is to never play.

Update - Katie Fehenbacher with Gigaom discusses how companies are already building business models around this very issue and includes some mind blowing statistics on how much consumers are really paying to text message their favorite shows. The Wall Street Journal also weighed in on this issue in this morning’s press.

Posted in TV | 4 Comments »

Lost In Zonkers

July 20th, 2006 Davis


Lost in Zonkers
Lost in Zonkers
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TiVo To Launch Service In Mainland China In August

July 20th, 2006 Davis

To date, everybody has been focused on TiVo’s problems securing cable deals in the US, but as the PVR proves to be an international hit, I believe that critics may be missing the forrest for the trees when it comes to TiVo’s cable licensing opportunities. Every since December 2005, TiVo has been selling service in Taiwan under their subsidiary, TiVo Greater China (TGC). Now, Digitimes is reporting that TGC chariman and CEO Ta-wei Chien has indicated that he expects a TiVo launch in Shanghai, sometime in August and that they have signed an agreement with SiTV of Shanghai Media Group. Pricing on the box is between approximately $300 - $400 depending on whether you want an 80GB or 160GB box, but the article doesn’t mention whether this includes guide data fees or not.

I’ve always been curious at to how much appeal TiVo would have to customers outside the US. On one hand, I think that there is an undeniable universal appeal to time shifting and the PVR, but on the other hand, US brands don’t always translate well in international markets. Add to this the unpredictability of piracy in China and there are a lot of question marks for anyone considering launching a business in China. One thing that I do think that TiVo did right in setting up TGC, was that they choose to take a minority stake and to partner with established players in the area. By doing this, I believe that they will receive more support from the Chinese government when it comes to fighting piracy and when it comes to implementing the service. Only time will tell if the Chinese culture will embrace the TiVo software, but with an August launch schedule, it sounds like it won’t take much time to start learning the answers to some of these questions. The only question now is whether the US series 3 comes out first or if TGC introduces their boxes in Shanghai beforehand.

Posted in Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, TiVo | 2 Comments »

Waiting On A Westbound Train

July 19th, 2006 Davis



Waiting For A West Bound Train
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Get The Cablecards Ready TiVo Series 3 Coming Soon!!!!

July 19th, 2006 Davis

TiVo has contacted both the FCC and cable operators to let them know that the Series 3 will be available soon. In their letter, they encourage cable operators to make sure that they have adequate supplies of cable cards ready for the upcoming Series 3 TiVo box. With two cable card slots and some obvious pent up consumer demand, I have a funny feeling that we are going to see record demand for cable card’s over the next year. Some have interpreted the failure of cable card adoption with TV sets, as a sign of it’s failure, but I believe that it speaks more to the appeal of the PVR. Anyone who is going to spend a couple thousand dollars for a nice TV expects to have time shifting capabilities to go with that. Between TiVo’s series 3 and Microsoft’s upcoming cable card Media Center Vista, I expect that the next year will prove the cable card critics wrong about it’s impending death.

Posted in Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, TiVo | No Comments »

It’s Not A Digital House, It’s A Home

July 18th, 2006 Davis

Anders Bylund with Ars Technica picked up on a news report by the BBC where Sonos CEO John McFarlane has suggested that the Digital Home may still be at least a decade away from being a reality. In the article, he points to broadband penetration in the UK preventing growth as well as a lack of mainstream appeal for the digital home. In the article, McFarlane claims that “”The digital home has been talked about for a long time but it’s only just starting to happen.” he then elaborates further by stating that “there needs to be enough digital content and the understanding of the technology before the work can get started.”

While I would agree with McFarlane that there has been a lot of buzz around the digital home, I might disagree with his statement that there isn’t enough digital content to drive a digital revolution. Now granted I’m an early adopter, but when I think about my own media habits, I can’t even imagine going back to an analog world.

At this point in my life, I’ve digitized my entire MP3 collection and have them stored on external drives. I’ve scanned every photo that I’ve ever taken and added it to my digital library along with the countless digital images that I’m producing now. I’ve substited the blogosphere and the web over subscription newspapers that I used to read frequently. My television habit has changed dramatically in that I now time shift everything and have the option to place shift, if I’d only breakdown and buy a laptop. Recently, when I went to find a new apartment in San Francisco, instead of relying on newspaper ads, I instead opted to use electronic ads on Craigslist. If I needed to locate an apartment, instead of turning to Thomas Guide I turned to Yahoo! maps. Instead of using a phone to contact people, I now use VOIP through Skype. In fact in thinking about my life, I don’t know that there is much that I now do that is not digitally connected in one way or another. This is what makes his comment about there not being enough digital content sound kind of funny to me. In my life there is no shortage of digital content and as I’ve built up more and more content, the need to have a digital home has become increasingly clear.

While I understand that his comments are really focused more on the mainstream, I still think that he is underestimating the potential that all of these forces play in driving consumer adoption of the digital home. For the time being consumers might not be aware of all of their options, but with the TiVo series 3 coming out and the growing popularity for things like Microsoft’s Media Center plugin, Harmony, which lets you control security cameras, heating, lighting, etc., I can’t help but think that the digital home is going to be here a lot sooner then a decade from now.

It may be that my early adopter mindset prevents me from believing that it will take a full decade for the digital home to catch on, but in looking at all of these digital pieces falling together, I can’t help but believe that the digital convergence is closer then when McFarlane might think.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

Are You The Skinny Guy At The All You Can Eat Buffet?

July 18th, 2006 Davis

Dave Zatz tipped me off to a pretty good article in the Wall Street Journal about Netflix customers being paralyzed by the sheer amount of choices that they offer. While on one level, this is a nice problem to have, on another level, it can be frustrating for a consumer to spend $20 per month and not actually watch any movies that month. In the article, Matt Phillips interviews Mike K from Hacking Netflix about the time that he was stuck with Mel Gibson’s Passion of Christ and just couldn’t bring himself to watch it even after renting it twice.

Personally, I’ve always been the fat guy at the buffet table when it’s come to Netflix’s all you can eat model. Pretty much every weekend I watch at least 3 movies and my average rental cost is about $1.75 over the life of my membership. I did once get stuck on The Godfather and after keeping the movie for a month sent it back unwatched, but afterwards, I felt like I was cheating myself out of a movie just because it was long and I rented all three movies in one weekend and watched the whole dynasty in one fell swoop.

In thinking about my rental tendancies, I would be willing to bet that on average, Netflix sees a longer hold time for movies that are over 2 hours long then shorter films. I don’t think it’s so much a component of not having more time to watch a film, but rather the psychological barrier to pressing play on the DVD. Earlier on, Netflix noticed that a lot of customers had the tendacy to slow down on the volume of rentals and introduced lower priced plans as a way that someone could stay a Netflix customer, but also not pay through the nose because they weren’t making use of the program. I think that this program has likely saved a lot of customers who may have cancelled anyway and that it’s helped to improve their customer service. By understanding that not everyone wants to be the fat guy at the all you can eat buffet, Netflix has created ways to reach consumers who might not be as quick in returning their rentals.

Posted in DVDs, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Netflix | 4 Comments »

Blockbuster and GameStop Sitting in a Tree . . .

July 18th, 2006 Davis

Over the past year, Blockbuster has been selling off their assets in an attempt to build operating capital, as well as to focus on their core video rental strategies. Most of this divestiture has come from video store liquidations overseas, but GamesIndustry.biz is reporting that Blockbuster analyst Michael Pachter thinks that Blockbuster could be interested in selling off their UK based Game Station stores to GameStop for $70 million. Pachter estimates the selling price at 1/2 of Blockbuster’s current sales at their Game Station division and thinks that between, Blockbuster’s desire to sell the company and GameStop’s desire to expand opperations that it would be a perfect fit.

“We think that Blockbuster is committed to selling its Game Station stores before year-end, and think that it makes eminent sense for GameStop to close any potential acquisition ahead of the key holiday selling season. As we believe that it is in both companies’ best interests to close a transaction before the holidays, and think that this transaction makes sense for both parties, we expect to see a transaction during the October quarter.”

$70 million could raise some liquidity for Blockbuster and allow them to focus more heavily on building a VOD strategy or on managing their existing stable of stores, but it would also impact their revenue and their diversification in the video store business. If video rentals continue to come under pressure from Netflix, VOD and new alternative entertainment choices, selling of these stores could be a mistake. On the other hand, the success of Microsoft’s Live Arcade demonstrates that video games won’t be immune to VOD pressures either.

In the end, it will be interesting to see what happens to Blockbuster’s game program if they do sell Game Station to GameStop. Netflix has yet to offer a video game strategy and while it’s expensive to maintain video games, I do think that this is big competitive advantage for Blockbuster and would love to see them implement some type of games program.

“In our view, should GameStop weigh the merits of a ‘build vs.buy’ analysis, it would decide to purchase the Gamestation stores for USD 70 million rather than build out new stores for USD 125,000-200,000 apiece and incur negative operating leverage while its new stores mature,” Pachter argued. “By purchasing the Game Station assets, GameStop could eliminate a key rival and immediately jump start sales in the UK, allowing it to grow EPS [earnings per share] almost immediately.”

GameStop wouldn’t comment on the rumors, but Pachter does make a pretty strong argument for why this makes sense for both companies and it will be interesting to see if his speculation turns out to be correct. In the long run, I continue to believe that all of our media will be digitally distributed, but it could take years for this shift to happen and in the meantime, Game Station could produce quite a bit of cash flow for whoever ends up owning them.

Posted in Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Netflix | 1 Comment »