For better or worse, the internet sure doesn’t seem to forget anything. This can be terrible if you say things you later regret, but it sure can be entertaining when it comes to looking at past predictions with 20/20 vision in the rear view mirror. Reading over Thomas Hawk’s recent analysis of predictions made over the last year, it surprised me at how much perceptions can change in just 12 months.
With technology seeming to move at the speed of light, it’s hard enough to stay ahead of the curve by a year, let alone 40 years, but while digging through an old stack of magazines, Darren Barefoot found a Playboy magazine (which really belonged to an ex-girlfriend’s younger brother of course 
) from 1994 with a great article asking various business people to comment on what the future would be like in 40 years. While it’s only been 13 years since the predictions were made, it’s still a lot of fun to look back at how differently people viewed the world before the internet changed everything. The whole article is worth checking out, but my favorites were the quotes on what people felt TV would be like in the year 2034.
Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft’s Sr. VP of Advanced Technology) – “Two decades ago it would have taken all the computers in the world to create the dinosaurs seen in Jurassic Park. Over the past 20 years the power of computers has increased 1 million times. I expect that rate to continue, which means computers will be a trillion times more powerful 40 years from now. Things will get pretty damn wild. Playboy probably won’t use humans to photograph the centerfolds. Computers will do it and no one will even notice the difference. The movie-making process will be totally changed as actors rent out their images for use in computer-made films. Because computing power will be enormously cheap, everything from light bulbs to floors and walls will be computerized.”
It may be every geek’s dream in life to be able to create their own digital centerfolds, but for now, Myhrvold will have to stick with second life until technology catches up. Computer speeds may have gotten faster, but there is still a huge difference between real actors and the animations that Pixar can dish out.
M. Bernard Puckett (IBM’s Former Sr. VP of Corp. Strategy and Development) – “In the future, we’ll enjoy amazing new worlds of interactivity. Say that I want to see my 1 1/2-year-old niece. I’ll tell the TV interface and she’ll appear in my house in an almost three-dimensional form. We’ll also be able to see the premiere of Batman X in our homes and participate in the movies. Batman will turn to you and ask which action he should take. As a result, the ending of the movie at your house will be different from that at your neighbors’. Masses of people will be able to access enormous amounts of information any time, anywhere. You’ll be able to see works of art or call up an expert to help with a woodworking project.”
Batman X still hasn’t come out yet, but you won’t be sharing it if the MPAA has anything to do with it. While technically, it’s possible to Skypecast programs today, it’s nowhere near mainstream. I’m not sure how I feel about holograms, but it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing a virtual Max Headroom anytime soon.
Yuki Nozoe (Sony’s SR VP of Marketing for the Consumer Products Group) – “Forty years from now the wall TV may finally have arrived. But it won’t hang like a picture – the wall itself will be the TV. Push a button and the wall will turn into a television screen. Push another button and you will see through it like a window. Press again and it will turn into a painted wall that’s part of your home.”
TV screens have definetely gotten bigger, but with the 103″ screens still being priced in the five digit range, I’m not sure that we’ll see TV screens actually replace drywall anytime soon. While on paper, the idea of an entire wall dedicated to television sounds fantastic, in reality, it’d be hard to watch a movie if the screen was that large. With as much as I move around, it’d make it too tough for me to change apartments.
Nicholas Graham (CEO and Founder of Joe Boxer) – When it comes to fashion, the only decision people will have to make is what to wear from the bedroom to the office, which will be located in another part of the house. Since you’ll be totally networked with other businesses, you’ll keep a suit of professional clothes next to the videophone. When you meet with clients electronically, you’ll slip on the suit. After the meeting, you’ll put your casual clothes back on. Methods of buying clothes will change, too. I imagine crossing QVC or the Home Shopping Network with Wild Palms. A holographic runway would appear in front of your television, with a three-dimensional image of Armani narrating his fall collection as simulated models past you. By punching a button on your remote control, you’ll be able to order the displayed fashions and, by changing channels, you change designers: Donna Karan on Channel six, Mark Jacobs on channel ten and so on.”
This is perhaps the most terrifying of all the predictions. It would be my personal hell. What are you supposed to do if the only two designers in your closet are Mervyns or JC Penney? I’ve rated Project Runway three thumbs down on my TiVo. I’d much rather have the videophone automatically put the suit on for me and then conduct meetings in my bathrobe.