Why Is Redbox Afraid Of The Big Bad iPhone?

March 25th, 2009 Davis

Over the last few years, Redbox has been able to build an impressive DVD rental network by being innovative and flexible while their competitors were still laughing at the concept of kiosk rentals. Over time they’ve added features to the Redbox website that allow customers to browse and reserve titles online. They’ve linked their kiosks together so that unlike competitors (ahem: Blockbuster), you can actually rent a movie from one location and return it at another. Redbox’s core business may ultimately be, plain old boring DVD rentals, but there’s no denying that they’ve been an innovator in their industry. This is why I am so perplexed by their most recent decision to go hostile against iPhone owners.

Given the company’s reputation for thinking progressively, I was disappointed to learn that they’ve decided to take a technological step backwards by putting pressure on the Inside Redbox blog, to kill their Inside Redbox iPhone application.

I haven’t jumped on the iPhone bandwagon myself yet, but I can understand why some people think of their phones as an extra appendage. The apps store was a brilliant move by Apple and has created all kinds of interesting software programs that wouldn’t have existed if people had to rely on big companies to build them.

By taking advantage of the GPS features inside the phone, Inside Redbox was able to give iPhone customers the ability to look up which Redbox was closest to them at any given moment. It also allowed customers to find out whether a specific title was available before wasting time visiting the kiosk in person.

The best part about the application though, was it’s ability to reserve movies directly from the iPhone. This means that if you’re standing in line at a Redbox and the person ahead of you is taking too much time selecting a movie, you could theoretically use your iPhone to digitally cut in line and reserve the last copy of Harold and Kumar instead of having to wait impatiently.

When you consider that one of the biggest customer service complaints about Redbox are the long lines when customers try to return DVDs, it blows my mind that Redbox would discourage consumers from using their own mobile device by having them monopolize a kiosk instead.

Whether a customer prefers to order their movies from the internet, a kiosk or the middle of the store while shopping for groceries shouldn’t make a difference to Redbox. No matter what, they are still making a sale, even if they don’t have 100% control over the purchase.

Inside Redbox is mum on details and calls to Redbox’s PR agency didn’t shed any light on the situation, but the two most “controversial” features included in the app is a list of codes for free Redbox movies and the fact that the app relies on Redbox’s website for most of the content.

One theory for why Redbox doesn’t seem to care about iPhone customers is that while they’ve been able to get a lot of buzz using their free movie offers online, consumers haven’t been all that aggressive about redeeming the promotions. Since iPhone customers have access to the most recent free offers while they are actually standing in front of the Redbox kiosk, it makes it easier for customers to take advantage of their specials.

If this is the reason why Redbox killed the application, my response would be that Redbox hasn’t solved their problem, they’ve just made it more difficult to work out a reasonable compromise with their customers. It won’t take consumers very long to figure out that they can bookmark Inside Redbox’s list of free codes or RedboxCodes.com on their iPhones and still have access to the same information.

Rather then fighting progress, Redbox should be using the relationships formed through the application to streamline their movie promotions. They already restrict some of their offers to new customers only, so why can’t they work out a deal for iPhone promotions? Wouldn’t it be better for Inside Redbox iPhone users to have a 10% chance at “winning” a free movie instead of killing the app and forcing these customers underground? By trying to lower the wham hammer on this neat little application, they’ll only end up upsetting customers instead of addressing a weakness in how they’ve choosen to promote their service. Just because the iPhone app doesn’t fit into their mold of what marketing should be, doesn’t mean that killing it is the best solution.

A second theory for why Redbox may have requested that the app be pulled is that Inside Redbox uses Redbox.com’s website for a healthy chunk of their content. Some businesses may object to this and want to have 100% control over how their customers are “allowed” to use their product, but smart companies see the benefits of being open. In fact open API’s are becoming increasingly common in the tech industry. By allowing third parties to mashup and repurpose your data, entirely new creations are possible. This is why some of the most successful companies have business models that encourage outsiders to partner with them. The Inside Redbox app may repackage content from Redbox’s website, but when push comes to shove, it’s really no different than an internet browser. Is it really better for Redbox to force their customers to have a subpar experience using the Redbox.com website on the iPhone instead of an app that is specifically designed to be viewed on the small screen? I don’t think so.

Asking Inside Redbox to pull their program is a bit like asking Microsoft to not allow Redbox’s website to be shown on Internet Explorer. If Redbox really objects to how their content is being used, they have the power to change it. Instead of trying to kill the third party programs that tap into what they’ve already created, they should be encouraging their fans to mix, mash and experiment to create new experiences for their customers.

To date, Redbox has managed to stay ahead of the competition by being nimble and by nurturing a passionate and dedicated fan base. Their decision to now turn on the very fans who cared about them long before their mainstream momentum, says a lot about how fickle their business decisions really are. Instead of acting like the innovator that I know they are, they are acting like a big media company. Hopefully, Redbox comes to their senses and “authorizes” the use of an app that only makes their service more valuable to their customers.

Posted in DVDs, Kiosks, SA, Technology, VOD, Web 2.0 | No Comments »

Netflix And Walmart Accused Of Illegally Cornering DVD Market

January 7th, 2009 Davis

Netflix Walmart Anti Trust Complaint

Over the last few years, it’s been no secret that Netflix has become the dominant force for DVD by mail rentals. There may be plenty of other ways to watch films, but when it comes to renting through the mail, Netflix’s laser like focus has put them in the enviable position of being able to assert a large degree of control over the economics of their market. While there is nothing wrong with a company being so successful that they become the dominant player through skill, there are laws against abusing that power to prevent competition.

A few years ago, Wal-mart created a copycat DVD rental service in order to try and get their own piece of the DVD rental market. Their results were disastrous and despite significant financial and retail advantages, the service never caught on with consumers. Eventually, Wal-Mart realized that it was foolish to spend as much time and money focusing on such a small part of their core business, so they threw in the towel and essentially sold their membership base to Netflix. While we know that the agreement included some cross promotional advertising, the actual terms of the deal weren’t ever publicly revealed.

While some would argue that Netflix’s agreement with Wal-mart was just another example of their business acumen, nearly four years after this transaction took place, Walmart and Netflix both stand accused of engaging in anti-trust behavior over the deal. While Netflix does see its fair share of bogus lawsuits, after reading through the complaint, I think that this case may end up having more teeth to it then most of the frivolous lawsuits that are filed (warning, I’m not an attorney, just my uneducated opinion.)

Because the overall DVD market is so much bigger then the online component that Netflix pwns/operates in, I think they’ll end up getting past this, but the complaint which was filed by Andrea Resnick, does do a good job of framing the debate and raises some prickly questions for Netflix/Walmart. Had Resnick tried to seek an injunction blocking the transaction back in 2005, most courts would have brushed aside any anti-trust arguments in a heartbeat, but by shifting the focus of their complaint beyond Netflix’s control over the DVD by mail category to Wal-Mart’s domination of the DVD sell through space, Resnick does a decent job of making his case.

According to the complant, “Prior to and at the time of the agreement, Netflix and Walmart.com were actual competitors in the Online DVD Rental Market. In addition, Netflix, on the one hand, and Wal-Mart Stores and Walmart.com were actual participants and Netflix was a potential participant, with the means and economic incentive to sell new DVDs–in the absence of the Market Division Agreement. Defendants shared a conscious commitment to a common scheme designed to achieve the unlawful objective of dividing the markets for online DVD rentals and new DVD sales. The Market Division Agreement allocated the Online DVD Rental Market to Netflix, with Wal-Mart Stores and Walmart.com agreeing not to compete in that Relevant Market. The agreement also allocated new DVD sales to Wal-Mart stores and Walmart.com, with Netflix agreeing to refrain from selling new DVDs in competition with them. In addition to explicitly or de facto agreeing not to sell new DVDs, Netflix also obtained the Market Division Agreement by providing potentially valuable promotion to Wal-Mart Stores and Walmart.com.”

(Note: bold and italics provided by me)

I don’t know whether or not there was specific language in the agreement preventing Netflix from selling new DVDs to their customers, but I am looking forward to finding out more details during the discovery phase of the trial.

Feel free to read through the complaint yourself, but when push comes to shove, it’s hard for me to believe that the courts will side with Resnick on this one. For one, as Techdirt aptly points out, Netflix doesn’t have a monopoly on the market, they just have the fortunate luck of competing with a neutered Blockbuster for that space. I also would argue that Netflix or Walmart for that matter, doesn’t have the ability to corner the home entertainment market as alleged. If Resnick is successful in arguing that the DVD by mail industry is a unique market they may end up having some luck, but the reality is that the home entertainment market is a helluva lot bigger then DVD rentals via the internet. If the FTC didn’t have problems with Sirius and XM combining to create a single satellite radio company, it’s hard to accept the argument that Netflix’s actions prevented competition on an anti-trust scale.

Since 2005, we’ve seen a radical transformation occur in the VOD and video over the internet markets. During that time, we’ve also seen Redbox install over 10,000 DVD kiosk locations throughout the US, including a large percentage of those in Walmart locations. When you consider that last year, Blockbuster had more then four times as much revenue then Netflix, it begins to illustrate how small Netflix’s slice of the movie rental industry really is.

Only time will tell how far this one will go, but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on. While I’m confident that neither Netflix nor Walmart did anything wrong, the suit isn’t as black and white as I would like. If Netflix does end up having to make compromises as a result of their success, it could have a serious impact on their ability to transition to digital delivery without any turbulence.

Posted in DVDs, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Kiosks, Netflix, SA | 1 Comment »

Why Isn’t There A Redbox For Video Games?

December 17th, 2008 Davis

Considering how much time I’ve spent writing about DVD kiosks, some may be surprised that last week was the first time I ever rented a DVD from Redbox. I was at the grocery store and saw that they had the most recent Indiana Jones movie. Indiana Jones has always been a favorite of mine, so on an impulse I made the rental. I probably would have rented from Redbox sooner, but between TiVo, Netflix and the internet, there has been no shortage of content for me to check out and I just couldn’t justify spending even a measly buck, when I already had too many options for movies and TV shows.

The entire rental process was very easy and only reinforced my belief that Redbox will be wildly successful with their business model. In fact, just this morning I noticed that 7-11 has even begun testing Redbox at their stores. I’m not sure if it was the convenience of using a machine instead of dealing with long lines and surly video store clerks or the convenience of being able to make a rental as I was finishing up my grocery shopping, but now that I’ve gotten a taste, I’m sure that I’ll be back.

While it would be hard to improve on the kiosk experience, in thinking about my own entertainment needs, I realized that there is one area of the kiosk market that is still being ignored. When it comes to DVDs, there have been a number of firms who’ve thrown their hat into the kiosk ring, but so far we haven’t seen anyone introduce a kiosk system that dispenses video games.

As a casual gamer, I tend to prefer purchasing my games over renting, but every now and then I end up buying a bomb and get upset that I’m out $60 for a weak title. When it comes to movies, I have no interest in watching the same one over and over again, but I could play a video game for a year and still get just as much enjoyment as the first time I picked it up. While the cost of video games would be higher, I have to imagine that there would be a lot of people like myself who would love to be able to rent a game and keep it, if it happens to rock. In fact, if Redbox (or Gamefly, Gamestop or even [shudder ] Blockbuster) introduced a rent to own kiosk system, I’d probably start buying 100% of my games from them.

Because video games tend to appeal to a more niche audience, it would be harder to introduce these kiosks in places like grocery stores of coffee shops, but I do think that companies like Burger King would love to have junk food loving adolescent males visiting their stores on a regular basis, so that they can check out (and return) the latest gaming titles. The extra cost of the video games would mean that they’d probably need to be charging closer to $3 a rental vs. the $1 bargain that Redbox offers for movies, so it’s possible that kiosk operators would see less demand for this type of service, but I would have to imagine that the sell through rate would be significantly higher, which could go a long ways towards making this idea economically viable.

Another issue that a video game kiosk would face, would be having to stock multiple versions of a game. When it comes to DVDs, a single standard allows you to play your movies whether your DVD player happens to be made by LG or Toshiba, but with video games, you’ve got Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft all battling for the living room, which would mean that you’d have to carry less titles to handle more formats or you’d need to have a company like Sony build kiosks that would exclusively support just PS3 games, even if it meant reducing the pool of potential customers.

While a video game kiosk would have some challenges, I think that most of these could be easily solved. I’m not sure why we haven’t seen anyone come out with a product like this yet, but I believe that there is a great market opportunity for the first one to make a move. Currently, it takes about 9 months for a Redbox kiosk to completely pay for itself. Even if it took twice as long for a video game kiosk to pay off, it’d still make an incredible investment for most businesses, even before you consider some of the extra benefits like driving more traffic to the retailer. I’m not sure whether or not someone will seize on this opportunity, but if they do, you can bet that I’ll be a customer. While I may have more then enough solutions when it comes to getting movies, getting a video game can still be a hassle.

What do you think, if someone allowed you to rent video games from a kiosk for $3 a day (or buy them for $50 - $60), would you be interested or is this just a niche market for people too lazy to drive to Gamespot?

Posted in Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Kiosks, Microsoft, Netflix, Video Games | No Comments »

Redbox Quitely Testing Hand Gun Kiosks

April 1st, 2008 Davis

After pulling their R rated movies from all McDonald’s locations, Redbox has come up with a creative solution for filling the inventory void left behind. Instead of stocking their popular Redbox kiosks with more G rated movies, they’ve decided to jump into a new market and will begin renting 9mm hand guns at their popular $1 per night price point. In a statement to the Inside Redbox blog, Redbox PR spokeperson Tommy G describes the program as a way to make Redbox customers feel safer at some of their “rougher” Redbox locations.

“with recent reports of violence at some of our ‘rougher’ locations, Redbox wanted to help ensure our customers’ safety so, we added this option in some of these areas to test out the idea. It is unfortunate that this customer found out about this before it was ready to be released to the public. Rest assured that we are doing everything we can to make our customers’ experience at Redbox the best it can be.”

It’s hard to know how popular handgun rentals will be, but if Redbox has success with the program, I bet we’ll see Netflix work out a loaner program with the post office to compete.

Posted in Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Kiosks, Netflix | 1 Comment »

From Rental To Retail - Blockbuster Begins Evoloution Towards New Rental Paradigm

November 14th, 2007 Davis

Over the last few years, I’ve followed the DVD rental industry pretty closely. During that time, I’ve been one of Blockbuster’s biggest critics and have frequently blasted the company for failing to adapt to the digital age. With their core rental business experiencing massive deterioration, I’ve had very few positive things to say about the company.

Their hyper-focus on competing with Netflix, has cost the company dearly and was a huge blunder by Blockbuster’s previous management. In order to try and counteract Netflix’s momentum, Blockbuster ended late fees, started a price war against a well funded innovator with little debt, and they massively cannibalized their higher margin in-store business. All in a desperate attempt, to differentiate their online service. Meanwhile, their executives took home pay packages that were unconscionable, especially when you consider Blockbuster’s dwindling resources and their dismal financial performance.

At the end of the day, their fight against Netflix has cost them at least a half a billion dollars and they still only have 3,000,000 subscribers.

Six months ago, I would have told you that there was nothing that Blockbuster could do to save itself. I had seen Antioco and Co. make too many poor decisions, to believe that they could figure out how to turn the company around. Instead of increasing prices, they were lowering them by offering unlimited total access rentals. While the program proved to be popular with consumers and the Mad Money crowd, it wasn’t an acceptable long term solution for the challenges that Blockbuster faces.

Of all the decisions that I’ve seen the company make, squeezing out Antioco may have been their best one. Ironically, the one move that I think was good for shareholders, turned Mad Money against them and started the spiral towards a new 52 week low today.

With so much going wrong for the company, I had low expectations when they brought in Jim Keyes to takeover at the helm. With the future of rentals being digital, I didn’t immediately appreciate the importance of bringing in a retail specialist.

Over the past few months, I’ve watched as Keyes has taken over and while it will take him time to steer Blockbuster back on course, his immediate move to cut advertising and unlimited rentals was one that made economic sense.

What a lot of people interpreted as Blockbuster refusing to face reality, I saw as an admission that they had lost their focus on their most profitable customers. In the short term, this is a good thing because it helps to stem the losses from the Total Access program, but it’s not a long term solution.

Following Blockbuster’s 3rd quarter earning’s call, I could understand why their shareholders might be nervous, but after listening to Keyes unveil his turnaround strategy at their analyst event, I was shocked to see such a negative market reaction to his ideas. Analysts slammed the event as being big on dreams and light on details and since the event, Blockbuster’s market cap has taken a 20% haircut.

What other’s may have interpreted as bad news, I saw as a stroke of genius. Keyes’ prescription for saving Blockbuster is the exact remedy that they need, in order to remain relevant in a digital age. There is little doubt that there will come a time where we see the end of the DVD rental, but for the first time, Blockbuster is willing to admit this and they laid out a compelling plan for how they will adjust to this transition.

Keyes discussed several initiatives, but at the heart of the strategy was a plan to evolve from a rentailer to a retailer. While the differences may be subtle, the details have tremendous implications on the viability of Blockbuster’s business model.

Dedicate More Square Footage To Retail

While Blockbuster has seen their brutal selloff, shares of Gamestop have caught on fire. The market clearly has no faith in the future of DVD rentals, yet they are still willing to invest in profitable retailers. The rental industry is a tough business and as that stream dries up, Blockbuster needs to be able to replace this with higher profit opportunities.

In order to accomplish this goal, Keyes has worked out an agreement with Sony to provide 2000 PS3 kiosks, in their stores during the holidays. I view this as an an early test for the viability of Blockbuster’s retail approach. I believe that the consoles will sell well among Blockbuster’s customer base and will lead towards more high end consumer electronics.

By focusing on selling higher ticket items, Blockbuster stands a better chance of covering their fixed costs. People are already going to Blockbuster to rent their movies, but if they can start to buy things like computers, cellular phones, HDTV’s and Blu-Ray players, it will give Blockbuster an opportunity to capture some of the money that retailers like Best Buy are able to take in.

If Blockbuster is successful with this transition, they could even get to a point where they could use rentals as a loss leader to drive higher revenue transactions. If you can sell enough HDTV’s, the decline in rental revenues becomes less of an issue. What some might see as the abandonment of the rental market is really Blockbuster pursuing better market opportunities.

Invest In Kiosk Technology

It’s no secret that I believe that burn on demand could save the DVD rental industry. As a tech savvy consumer, I have lots of options for streaming digital content to my television, but most people still prefer the good old fashioned DVD. Even after the digital revolution gains critical mass, there will still be a need for movie rentals. While it’s easy to believe that everyone has a computer and internet access, there is still a large part of the market that VOD and Netflix, can’t get at.

The problem with Blockbuster’s retail initiatives, is that this will eat into the selection and inventory. If half the store is dedicated to selling consumer electronics, it becomes challenging to offer as many choices. Burn on demand can solve this issue for Blockbuster. By taking care of the heavy lifting, Blockbuster can make it easy for consumers to watch an even wider range of content.

Keyes plan to invest in burn on demand technology shows that he understands the savings and impact, that this technology can have. My only reservation about his approach, is his intention to introduce the kiosks at the store level. Kiosks can provide a lot of efficiencies, but they don’t do well with volume. I can see the potential in letting franchisees use the technology in non-video store locations, but believe that Blockbuster needs a different solution at the store level.

Everybody knows how to work a printer at the supermarket, but there is a reason why people still go to Kinkos. They can handle volume like nobody’s business.

Burn on demand kiosks will be good for expanding into supermarkets, coffee shops and fast food restaurants, but Blockbuster will need dedicated servers and lots of burners at the store level, if they want to provide a superior experience at their retail locations. By handling the heavy lifting for consumers, they could bypass a significant technological hurdle in the adoption of burn on demand DVD.

Shifting To More Revenue Sharing Arrangements

One of the biggest weaknesses in Blockbuster’s business model are the high fixed costs that they have to deal with. Blockbuster can’t get rid of the lease payments or all of the employee costs, but they can reduce their leverage by approaching their stuido partners. Whether rental will eventually die or not, the studios want to protect the DVD stream and have an incentive to work with Blockbuster towards ensuring their survival. In order to get less up front costs, Blockbuster will be forced to give up their gross margins, but it will allow them to keep top movies in stock and to offer a burn on demand experience.

Raising Prices and Reinstating Late Fees

Over the past few years, we’ve seen the price of a lot of products go up. Whether it’s higher gas prices or postal rate increases, the cost of living has been increasing. When it comes to rental though, we’ve seen price deteriorate. The DVD price war has taken it’s toll and there is more than enough justification for Netflix and Blockbuster to increase prices. This strategy is probably the most risky, because if Netflix didn’t follow through with their own price increase, there could be a severe reaction against Blockbuster.

One of the things that has always impressed me about Netflix, has been their commitment to testing ideas before implementation. When Blockbuster ended late fees, they took a shotgun approach and hoped that it would pay off. It obviously didn’t.

When Netflix lowered prices it was after they understood the elasticity of the demand curve. By taking their time to react to competitive threats, Netflix was able to make more intelligent decisions in combating Blockbuster. While I’m sure that Blockbuster shareholders would welcome an imediate price increase, I have to admire the fact that Keyes isn’t willing to dive in head first on this one.

As far as the late fees goes, this is clearly a problem. By allowing customers to keep rentals, it’s prevented other people from having access to the inventory. I think it’s fair for Blockbuster to consider this move, but after such a massive no late fee campaign, there could be a strong backlash. One of the problems that I think most people had with Blockbuster’s late charges was the punitive nature of the fees. Instead of having to pay for one more day, you often had to pay for another three day rental.

During the analyst presentation, Keyes expressed admiration for Redbox’s pricing model and pointed out that a $1 a day wasn’t really cheaper then Blockbuster. If Blockbuster had $3 rentals for three days and then a $1 per day afterwards, consumers might accept the return of late fees. Still, after such a massive promotion (and lawsuit settlements), it would be gutsy to try and re-introduce them.

There is no way to know for sure, if any of these initiatives can save Blockbuster, but I do believe that Keyes is making the right moves towards securing the long term future of the company. While I may have written off the video store, I’m not ready to call the end of retail and I’m impressed by Keyes focus on improving revenue per square footage, instead of being distracted by the internet. It’s the right move for Blockbuster to make and one that marks the divergence of the Netflix vs. Blockbuster paradigm. With rental revenues set to eventually expire, Blockbuster is smart in positioning themselves to take on other retailers, where they have an advantage. By making these changes, it shifts the battle to Blockbuster vs. Circuit City, Best Buy and Game Stop and this is a business model that should make more sense to Blockbuster’s investors.

Posted in DVDs, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Kiosks, Movies, Netflix | 5 Comments »

Blockbuster <3 Blu-Ray or Shotgun Wedding?

June 27th, 2007 Davis

Last week, Blockbuster made a pretty big splash after they announced that they were going to support Blu-Ray exclusively at their retail stores. The move prompted a lot of people to ask if this was a sign that HD-DVD was dead in the water. After all, Blockbuster has a significant retail presence and their support for one format could be interpreted as a sign that consumers are demanding Blu-Ray over HD-DVD.

On the surface, this explanation seems to make sense. Blockbuster even went so far as to tell people that 70% of their test stores were choosing Blu-ray content. Sooner or later Blockbuster was going to have to choose a format and by doing it publicly, they were able to control how that information got out. Irrespective of their motivation, the move was smart on many levels and helped Sony to shift momentum back to Blu-ray, in the never ending format wars.

It could be that this is all there is to this story, that Blockbuster choose their customer’s preferences over corporate interests, but as a conspiracy theorist, I can’t help, but feel that there is more going on, back at Blockbuster HQ.

It’s entirely possible that Blockbuster’s love affair with Blu-Ray was an isolated business decision, but I suspect that Uncle Sony may have brought a shotgun to the wedding, in order to make sure that Blu-ray stayed relevant.

Over the last year, the DVD kiosk market has started to get hot. Consumers may have been skeptical at first, but once they get a taste, they have to come back. By the end of the year, there very well could be close to 10,000 kiosks in North America.

Even though the current kiosks have proven to be popular, Blockbuster and Movie Gallery have largely sat out of the DVD kiosk expansion. It could be that they don’t have the capital to pursue the technology or it may be that they really don’t see a future in kiosk rentals, but I believe, that they’ve been holding out for something even better, burn on demand DVD.

As the DVD kiosk market develops, I think we’ll see two different business models unfold. There will still be the current kiosk that offers a couple dozen choices and an inventory of 500 - 1000 discs and there will be the burn on demand machines that will carry 2,000 - 3,000 different movies that you can burn at the retail level. The current kiosks will be popular because they take a relatively low investment and the owners can control the costs of the content because of the fair use doctrine. If you play your cards right, you can make the kiosk pay for itself in the first year you own it. These are especially well suited for adding DVD rentals to a high traffic locations that normally couldn’t support a video store.

Unfortunately though, for a lot of retailers, the limited capacity of today’s kiosks prevents them from using the technology in more powerful ways. If you can’t replace your entire inventory with a limited number of discs, than it’s hard to convince the video stores and big box retailers to adopt the technology. While today’s technology will play a vital role in the future of the DVD rental market, it will be burn on demand that has the potential to save the video stores from extinction.

To a certain extent, Blockbuster will be interested in using the burn on demand kiosks in order to minimize real estate and cut down on employee costs, but the real benefit of the kiosks will be the new franchising opportunities that will open up to them. As the video store industry has gone into consolidation mode, Blockbuster’s franchisees have had a very difficult time adjusting to the new rental environment. Disagreements over the online program and the end of late fees, has even caused one of their first franchise owners to sue Blockbuster for breach of contract. As the market has collapsed, attracting new capital has been difficult and Blockbuster has struggled in replacing this lost revenue.

One of the problems with the stand alone burn on demand kiosks, is that these will not be cheap. It will take a healthy chunk of capital in order for Blockbuster or Movie Gallery to take advantage of this expanding market. With the introduction of the technology though, Blockbuster can leverage their brand by offering franchisee investors an opportunity to help create a new automated video store network.

This would help to raise outside capital that isn’t dilutive to Blockbuster shareholders, doesn’t increase debt, and would give smaller investors, a direct opportunity to invest in the growth of this emerging market.

When it comes to Blockbuster’s retail stores, I believe that they’ll look less like a kiosk and more like a Kinko’s. Blockbuster would be well served in studying the success that Paul Orfalea has had in building his company. The same concepts that he applied, will be key components for maximizing the success in using the technology. Burn on demand at the store level will need to work like a machine, in order for Blockbuster to provide the optimal retail experience, while minimizing their costs at the same time.

Little things like allowing customers to select a film online and have it available for pick up will matter a lot. They may even be able to charge higher prices by guaranteeing that you can always get the movie that you want. With a server and a couple of fast burners, Blockbuster could reduce the size of their real estate and improve customer selection at the same time.

For Blockbuster the stakes are huge.

Unfortunately though, the stakes for Sony are even bigger and while the technology to deploy burn on demand has been here for a very long time, like anything involving Hollywood, it’s been tied down over disagreements tied to the licensing of formats. Last December, things looked promising, that we might be witnessing the birth of this technology.

Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons said that 2007 would see the introduction of burn on demand technology for their retail partners, the DVD forum even “approved” a standard for the DRM, and in anticipation of the launch, Sonic solutions went as far as to announce that they were launching a commercial and retail solution using the technology. Despite all of these signs of this technological evolution, somehow the licensing discussions got hijacked by the DVD-CCA, and everything started to break down.

While Blockbuster hasn’t publicly discussed their burn on demand ambitions, there have been hints that they’ve had their eyes set on this target. Earlier this month, Lionsgate’s CEO Jon Feltheimer said that the company had digital distribution agreements in place with Best Buy and Blockbuster. Many in the press, assumed that he was referring to a movie download service, but no one stopped to consider whether or not “digital distribution” could occur at the retail level. Later, Feltheimer backed away from the comments, which could be interpreted as a sign of on going discussions.

Many retail and technology companies had hoped that Hollywood could come to a decision, but over the last six months, it’s been nothing but a series of delays. When the group met last April, they still couldn’t resolve their impasse and the decision was put off for another two months, while the studios considered their alternatives.

While there is no way for me to know what goes on behind the closed door DVD-CCA sessions, what I do know from my sources in the kiosk industry, is that the disagreement over the licensing has largely been between the studios, not the consumer electronic companies involved. At one point, Sony was even looking into building their own DVD kiosks, that would burn Sony films exclusively.

This would obviously be a less than ideal solution for consumers and retailers, but it suggests that whatever the core issues are, Sony is concerned enough about them, that they are willing to ostracize their customers, in order to maintain their hold on the DVD market.

What makes me suspect that Sony may have brought a shotgun to Blockbuster’s wedding, is the timing of the announcement of their engagement. It was a week and a half before today’s meeting, where the DVD-CCA, (cough: Sony) will decide whether or not consumers should be able to buy a burn on demand DVD or whether it poses too much of a piracy problem

Coincidently enough, two days before the meeting, Rimage, also issued a press release where they mentioned their love of “Blu-ray” six different times. Rimage also recently announced a $6.5 million order from an unnamed “national retailer”. Rimage helps to make DVD publishing systems, Sonic makes the DRM.

Now, this is just speculation on my part, but considering that Sony owns half of the patents in the DVD-CCA licensing pool, I’m going to assume that they’ve got some control over what happens with the DVD-CCA. If the DVD-CCA can’t agree on a decision, than it might delay Sony’s digital plans, but it would certainly mean a lot more to a company like say ohhhh I don’t know, Blockbuster? It’s easy to dismiss, Blockbuster’s acceptance of Blu-ray as a day to day business decision, but in the larger context of their digital strategy, I think the move very likely could have been made, to shore up Sony’s support for the burn on demand technology.

While the DVD-CCA did meet today, I haven’t been able to find out the decision. They don’t like a lot of public attention and haven’t posted anything publicly. They did post their support for a law making all DVD copying illegal though. It’s hard to argue with them, I can only imagine how terrible it would be if consumers were allowed to make fair use copies of their content.

It could be that I’m reading entirely too much into this, but after watching Sony destroy their own PS3 with a forced Blu-ray “upgrade”, I wouldn’t put it past the company to try and use their muscle on the DVD-CCA board, in order to squeeze a retail partner like Blockbuster. You can call it payola or you can call it smart business, but it’s hard for me to blame Blockbuster, even if their “support” for Blu-ray may have involved a little tit for tat.

If it unlocks the key to burn on demand, then Blu-ray is a small price to pay, for a real shot at long term survival. Until, the studios can figure out a different economic equation, the video stores won’t survive the commoditization of media.

Update - It looks like it’s official, or at least sort of. I’m not sure if Blockbuster’s support was what it took, but the DVD-CCA finally authorized burn on demand for consumers and retailers. The paperwork won’t be signed until next week, but the move opens the door for a brand new market to unfold. It will take time for the rollout of actual products, but I expect that it won’t take long before we start seeing plenty of retailers adopting the technology. It’s way to early to tell how this market will shake out, but I expect to see lots of competition.

Posted in DRM, DVDs, HDTV DVDs, Kiosks, Media, Movies, TV, Technology, VOD | 5 Comments »

DVDPlay Puts Exclamation Point On Growth Of DVD Kiosk Market

January 16th, 2007 Davis

If it wasn’t already clear that 2006 was a record year for the DVD kiosk industry, DVDPlay has added their own exclamation point to the success of the industry by releasing an update on their own DVD kiosk program.

During 2006, DVDPlay continued to demonstrate phenomenal growth for their brand and now has over 1,000 DVDPlay branded locations, on top of another 1,000 non-branded locations that consumers can rent from. The company also announced that in 2007, they are planning to continue their aggressive rollout of kiosks by adding another 2,000 locations to their program.

Considering that just a year ago, DVDPlay was announcing that they had rented their 4 millionth DVD over the life of their business, it pretty amazing to see them add another 2 million DVD rentals, just over 2006 alone.

With demand from consumers and retailers clearly continuing to increase, DVDPlay is starting to gain serious traction in the market for DVD rentals. In addition to hitting these growth milestones, the company also announced that their rollout into Arizona is almost complete and they now have kiosks located in 90% of all Arizona Safeway stores.

The official word from Safeway is that it’s still too early to gauge the success of these rollouts, but from their comments, it’s clear that even if the machines were running at breakeven, there is still a huge benefit for them to give up 5.5 square feet of their store, in order to be able to offer DVD rentals to their customers.

“Safeway spokeswoman Nikki Daly said its too early to determine how popular the kiosks are with customers. “This is just another way for us to offer convenience to our customers,” she said. Daly said the company phased out video departments in many of its stores because they were too much of a drain on staff and consumed too much space.”

With more and more retailers taking a closer look at offering DVD rentals to their customers, DVDPlay sits in an attractive position to capitalize on this trend. If they do end up tripling the number of kiosk locations by the end of this year, it won’t take long before these developments start having a real economic impact on traditional video stores. While the selection on a kiosk can’t replicate what’s available at a local video store today, the convenience of kiosk rentals and the ability for the industry to deploy machines quickly and cost effectively, could put enormous pressure on an industry that is clearly very much in flux.

So far, grocery stores have been the most likely locations to adopt the DVD kiosk, but the more popular this technology becomes, the greater the potential that this market has to grow . With coffee houses, fast food restaurants, gas stations and quick serve convenience stores still without a DVD rental option, the growth potential of this market is really quite extraordinary. With many retailers only putting their toe in the water during 2006, I expect that we will see significant demand for DVD kiosks increase in 2007.

2006 may have turned out to be a record year for the DVD kiosk industry, but with with all three of the major kiosk players planning aggresive growth in 2007, I have even higher expectations for what we’ll see by the end of this year.

Posted in DVDs, Kiosks, Movies | 1 Comment »

Zoom Kiosks Hacked - Hackers Can’t Resist Free iPods

January 16th, 2007 Davis

One of the major advantages to using kiosks at a retail store is the reduction in shrinkage that retailers see, once they introduce kiosks at the retail level. Because customers have to actually pay for a product before they can get their hands on it, vending can save retailers significant amounts of money by reducing the amount of theft from shoplifters and unscrupulous employees. Like anything though, if you give someone enough incentive, people will always figure out a way to get around theft deterrent systems.

When I was a kid, people took the time to figure out a way to short circuit Coke machines into giving away free sodas, by spitting water into the slot for dollar bills. Considering that Zoom systems is catering to a much higher end of the retail market with their iPod and cell phone kiosks, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that hackers have already figured out a way to get around the theft protections built into the Zoom vending machines.

Because Zoom is using internet explorer to run their kiosk software, hackers have figured out that it’s relatively easy to bypass their security protections by accessing the file explorer window and then tricking the machine into thinking that you’ve already paid.

Since most of the Zoom’s kiosks are either inside of a Macy’s location or in an airport, this limits the effectiveness of this hack because there are still security guards that can watch out for this, but this hack could still undermine the usefulness of kiosk technology, if you have to have physical security monitoring the machines. While I’d be surprised to find out that Zoom hasn’t already responded to this threat by making it more difficult to gain access to the file explorer window, this hack still highlights an important issue for kiosk manufactuers to consider when designing their vending solutions.

By removing an actual human from the transaction process vending can save time and money for many businesses, but without the right theft controls, it can also expose retailers to even higher levels of theft. Even with this exploit, I would still be willing to bet that retailers see significant less shrinkage with Zoom kiosks than without them, but for a technology that depends upon removing humans from the transaction process, these sorts of exploits are a significant threat to the kiosk industry. If retailers can’t feel comfortable in having an unmonitored vending machine selling their inventory, it will greatly diminish the appeal and convenience that vending can have as a retail solution.

Posted in Kiosks, Technology | 9 Comments »

Single Zoom Kiosk Sells $55,000 Worth Of iPods In Just 1 Month

December 28th, 2006 Davis

Hot Product Hosted on Zooomr

Setting the gold standard for the kiosk industry, Zoom Systems has revealed that they’ve taken in $55,000 worth of iPod sales from just 1 vending machine at an Atlanta airport over a single month. This is an amazing amount of revenue from a kiosk and may offer a glimpse at how we’ll see high end electronics sold in the future.

Earlier this week, Sanford Bernstein said that they estimated that Apple earns about $4,000 per square foot at their retail stores each year. While this is an impressive number in it’s own right, if Zoom can replicate this type of volume for a full year, it would mean that they have the potential to earn $20,000 in income for each square foot that they take up.

I’ve seen these Zoom kiosks in action and while they don’t dispense DVDs, they are certainly unbelievably hot. Consumers love them and want to try them out, just to use them. The machines are simple enough to use, consumers pick out the type of iPod or accessory that they want, put in their credit card and then the machine gently gives them consumer electronic love. The whole process is actually easier and more enjoyable than a traditional retail transaction and Zoom doesn’t have to pay their robots overtime.

Over the last year, Zoom raised $10 million in round C funding and another $35 million in round D funding just six months later. With a very hot kiosk design, an emphasis on high end retail and backing from investors like Goldman Sachs and Motorola, Zoom is well positioned to lead the kiosk industry from snack foods to luxury goods.

Posted in Kiosks, Technology | 3 Comments »

DVD Play Fast Forwards Into Arizona

December 16th, 2006 Davis

DVD Play is the oldest of the DVD kiosk providers, but also one of the smallest. While the company doesn’t have nearly as many kiosks as Redbox or TNR Entertainment, they do have an important agreement with Safeway to provide DVD rental machines to their stores. According to their website, the company currently has approximately 170 machines, mostly at Safeway locations. All but one of these machines are located in California.

DVD Play’s system is set up very much like the other DVD kiosk players, except they use smaller machines and charge more for their rentals. Their machines only hold 500 discs and they typically offer between 25 - 50 movie choices at any given time. Recently, I asked the Safeway manager near my house about how popular the machines were and he estimates that they rent about 20 DVDs per day from his location. Because the DVDs are $1.50 for the rental and $1.00 for each day after, it means that they need to rent less to be profitable. If DVD Play demonstrates success at these price points, it will be a good test case in how elastic DVD rentals are, once you increase the price over the $1 per night.

One thing that was clear from my conversation with the Safeway manager was that he was really happy to have the machines in his store, regardless of the number of rentals that they achieve. He felt like it added to customer satisfaction and that it gave the store something that they haven’t been able to offer before. In a news article from the Payson Roundup, he’s clearly not the only manager who feels this way. In the article they reveal that DVD Play has started their expansion outside of California and is now rolling out kiosks in Northern Arizona and they also discuss some of the less tangible benefits that Safeway is seeing as a result of this rollout.

“We don’t own or service the kiosk,” said Dan Dillon, Safeway store manager. “We have a contract with the company that does own it, but we’re glad to have it. This is just one more convenience for our customers. People can pick up their prescription, grab some flowers, get a coffee at Starbucks, and then a movie — all in the same ten minutes.”

When looking at the DVD kiosk market, there are really two different customers that need to be served. There is the consumer, who ultimately rents the DVD, but then there is also the retailer who is providing the floor space for the machines. In watching the growth of this industry it’s become clear that retailers like these machines even more then the customers do. Renting DVDs can be a real pain for a grocery store. It takes staff, inventory systems and precious floor space. On the other hand, putting a DVD kiosk near the exit of a store barely takes up any floor space, needs little servicing and has it’s own automated inventory system built in.

Recently, DVD Play hired Dennis Lucas as an Executive Vice President. Lucas was a brillant acquistion for the company and previously had spent most of his career working his way up the corporate ladder of the Albertson’s organization. Just like Netflix depends upon the postal system to act as a distribution partner, the kiosk companies use grocery stores to act as theirs. With Lucas’ extensive background in the grocery industry, he brings skills that will prove invaluable in how DVD Play is able to better serve their grocery partners and demonstrate these less tangible benefits. I see hiring Lucas as being akin to when Netflix hired the former postmaster general to act as their liaison to the post office. While it’s still early for Lucas at the company, I have high expectations for what he can bring to the operational side of DVD Play’s business, as well as to the negotiation table.

DVD Play’s expansion into Arizona makes a lot of sense from a geographical standpoint and could represent a real turning point for the company. DVD Play was founded in 1999 and while they’ve seen slow but steady growth, it’s been anything but explosive. While the company may have gotten off to a slow start, more recently things have been progressing quite nicely for them. At the end of 2004, things looked pretty bleak, but in 2005 the company saw a 200% growth increase and by the end of 05′ they had rented over 4 million DVDs. In 2006, growth has continued to accelerate and they added another 1 million DVDs to this total in the first six months of this year alone. This works out to be an average of approximately 32 DVDs rented a day from their machines.

With the pickup in volume, DVD Play conducted a second round of VC financing and raised another $20 million to help fund further expansion. This brought the total capital that they company has raised to $40 million.

The company plans to use this capital to expand into 1,000 locations by the end of 2007 and has previously said that they would target California, Texas and Florida as ideal locations for this growth.

While DVD Play may have gotten off to a slow start, their recent success and their expansion into Arizona is another clear signal that the DVD kiosk industry is strong, healthy and growing. While I don’t fully understand why it has taken consumers so long to embrace this technology, it’s clear that consumer habits are changing and that more and more businesses and people are becoming comfortable with using kiosks. As video stores continue to come under pressure from a variety of competition, the DVD kiosk will serve an important role in capturing customers who still want instant gratification, at a fraction of the cost of operating a full scale retail store.

Posted in DVDs, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, Kiosks, Netflix, Technology | No Comments »