DivX Looks Outside The Codec For The Future Of Web Video

May 7th, 2008 Davis

DivXDivX reported their 1st quarter earnings on Monday and while I’m still waiting to read the actual 10k before digging too far into the numbers, I did want to comment on what I see as a significant shift in strategy. Over the last 7 years, DivX has done an impressive job of building an eco-system around a single file format. The first time that I came across a DivX file, I actually thought that it was some kind of a virus. It took me two weeks before I worked up the courage to download the DivX media player so that I could play the movie, but once I did, I realized that my fears were unfounded. The file not only offered a superior video experience, but it was a lot smaller than the MPEG files that I was used to downloading. Since I was on a dial-up connection at the time, every little byte made a big difference.

As the P2P networks developed, DivX and it’s open source cousin XviD, became an important resource for file sharers. Initially, my own interest in DivX was driven by it’s technological advantages over other video formats, as well as the wide availability of DivX content on the grey market, but as compression technology has evolved, my reasons for using DivX have changed as well. Since I’m no longer on a dial-up network, compression is less important then what I can actually do with my videos.

As DivX gained in popularity, they were able to forge agreements with consumer electronic manufacturers that allowed you to play DivX files on a wide range of devices. Even though, H.264 is a superior standard for internet video, I still prefer DivX files because I know that I’ll be able to play them on the hardware devices that I own.

By creating an eco-system that supports portability, DivX has been able to lock me into their format in the same way that Apple has been able to use iTunes to keep their customers buying iPods instead of mp3 players.

As H.264, Microsoft, Apple and Adobe all continue to creep into DivX’s territory, there has been a lot of concern over how DivX would respond to these competing threats. Microsoft’s approach has been to batten down the hatches by developing their proprietary Silverlight codec. By retaining full control over the video format, they are able to convince people to buy as many Microsoft supported products as possible. These extra restrictions increase the appeal of Silverlight for DRM hungry Hollywood studios, but it also frustrates their customers in the process. Incompatible file formats are the reason why services like Netflix’s Watch Now doesn’t get along with Apple. Since Microsoft (and Apple) refuse to open up their codecs, it gives them a monopoly on the hardware that is allowed to support their video files.

Apple has at least opened up their system a little bit by adding support for the H.264 format, but they’ve still chosen to wrap their h.264 files inside of the Quicktime container. This prevents other companies from supporting Apple H.264 content, without obtaining a license for Quicktime first. This helps to open up Apple’s eco-system to alternative video formats, but still gives Apple control over the companies that are allowed to play nice with their your media.

Similarly, Adobe has also forged agreements to support H.264 inside of flash, but if you want to take your Flash H.264 files portable, you’ll need a device that can support the Flash format. To their credit, Adobe has done a good job of building momentum for downloadable flash by supporting open source initiatives, a new DRM system, and by removing license fees for mobile providers, but despite their early traction with these efforts, there are still very few hardware devices that are actually capable of playing portable flash content.

With so many companies pursuing proprietary video strategies, one would expect DivX to be focusing on locking consumers into the DivX format, but like most things having to do with DivX, their strategy for dealing with the next generation of codecs is also built on a system of openness.

We got our first real glimpse of this strategy last November when DivX announced that they had acquired Mainconcept for $22 - $28 million. The Mainconcept acquisition gave DivX an immediate footprint in the H.264 space, but it also raised some important questions about how DivX could maintain a monopoly on their community, while supporting a format that is widely available to competitors.

Interestingly enough, while discussing H.264 on their latest conference call, DivX CEO Kevin Hell pointed out that the current state of H.264 really isn’t all that different from the MPEG-4 standard that DivX was built on.

“Looking forward, a real opportunity exists for DivX to emerge as the consumer face of H.264, serving as a trusted brand for users who don’t want to concern themselves with underlying formats or technologies. In fact, the current H.264 market resembles in many ways the early stages of MPEG-4 market.

When DivX first emerged seven years ago there were number of different and incompatible MPEG-4 implementations available. Through our strong consumer adoption and the creation of the DivX certification program, we were able to simplify the experience for consumers and provide a solution that just works across any device. We plan to repeat that strategy by incorporating broad H.264 support into both our software and consumer electronics offerings under the DivX brand. We are on track to release a new version of our software in 2008 that supports H.264 and then extend that support to consumer electronic devices that are likely to hit the market in 2009. We believe that this development will help move the DivX brand beyond one single format and toward promise of support for any video content, on any device.”

DivX’s evolution towards H.264 won’t be a clean and easy transition, but it is the right direction for the company. If they can successfully integrate H.264 into their certification program, it will reduce the threat of their codec becoming obsolete and will highlight their certification process as being the real value added for consumer device manufacturers.

Instead of trying to educate consumers on the differences between MPEG-4 Part 2 vs. MPEG-4 AVC (H.264), CE manufacturers can slap the DivX label onto their devices and consumers will know that it will support their digital video libraries without complications. In fact, during the Q&A section of their conference call, DivX discussed the possibility of pushing this envelope even further by adding Flash support to their certification program.

“In terms of how we think about Flash more broadly, the vast majority of content that is downloaded today is in DivX format or variations of the DivX format, so we don’t see that as being a threat in terms of the use case that we’re really providing, which is high quality content delivered through the internet and then played back on a variety of devices. To the extent that Flash starts to get traction in terms of files that are downloaded at high quality and based on the terms, it would be something that we could actually extend into and offer into our certification program as well and that’s what we’d be looking to do.”

Part of what makes DivX such a difficult company to pin down, is their ability to take competitors and turn them into partners. On one hand, Microsoft is one of the biggest threats to DivX, but if they can get them to extend DivX support to the Xbox, they could become an important customer.

Adobe is currently using Mainconcept to power their H.264 support, but they are also trying to establish their own format as the new standard for internet delivered video. These complex relationships are enough to make anyone’s head spin, but DivX has a way of getting their partners to look at the glass half full side of the equation.

On one hand, It’s hard for me to believe that Adobe would be all that enthusiastic about giving up control over their flash content, but on the other hand, a DivX partnership would create a powerful competitor to Apple and Microsoft’s closed systems.

Adobe would gain access to an established community of video fans and would have one more platform that could drive demand for Flash content. Instead of having to worry about the lack of downloadable flash content, they could leverage DivX’s popularity, while slowly introducing their own standard for web video. While I doubt that older DivX devices would be able to support Flash with a firmware update, any new DivX devices would be able to support their content.

For DivX, they would be able to increase the appeal of their brand by offering support for the next generation of internet video. They could also use Adobe DRM as a way of bypassing studio approval for DivX content. While DivX did mention plans to update their DRM later this year, getting in through Adobe’s backdoor could be a lot easier than buying off the studios. According to DivX’s 4th quarter 10k filing, they paid Sony $1.5 million and gave them 100,000 warrants at a strike price of $16.14, in order to get the studio to bless the DivX format. While it’s possible that DivX plans on buying off all of the studios, this could get expensive really quick, if DivX is serious about going legit.

For consumers, it would be the biggest win of all. Instead of being locked into a single file format, they would have the flexiblity to adopt alternative standards without having to abandon their current media libraries. This would pressure Microsoft and Apple to open up their hardware, instead of maintaining data silos.

It’s hard to judge how serious DivX is about adopting flash support from just a few comments, but even beyond flash, having support for multi-formats adds real value to their brand. As new forms of digital transmission unfold, DivX is in a position to attach their brand to a much larger category of web video.

Some of the niche video formats don’t have the ability to negotiate partnerships with the device manufacturers directly, but through DivX could gain access to a much larger audience. If DivX certification suddenly meant that Matroska containers could play on DivX devices, it would open up another community that DivX could tap into and it would change how Matroska fans think about the DivX brand.

Bringing other formats into the DivX program, would add to DivX’s cost of revenue, but it would make DivX certification more valuable to their CE partners. I may enjoy dissecting the nuances between the various competing video formats, but most consumers don’t want to think about it. They want to be able to play whatever file they have without converting it into a single format. By focusing on supporting as many formats as possible, DivX may end up competing with their own eco-system, but they’ll also expand their reach in the process. By taking DivX beyond the codec, it allows their community to move forward with the future, while hanging onto the treasures from the past.

Disclosure - I own shares of Netflix

Posted in Technology, DivX, SA, TV, VOD, Disclosure - I own stock in co. mentioned, DRM, Netflix | 2 Comments »

Stage6 Part Deux?

April 24th, 2008 Davis

In a Bob Dylan State of MindOver the past few days buzz has been building over the possible launch of a Stage6 clone. According to the DivxIT.net website, a Stage6 “alternative/clone” will be revealed on April 29th. If this is true, it would be an exciting development for fans who still crave the high quality Stage6 experience.

This isn’t the first time that someone has tried to hype the launch of a Stage6 replacement. As soon as Stage6 announced their shut down, there was a flurry of fake Stage6 clone announcements. Most of those sites fizzled out before they even got started.

NewStage6.com
was the first “replacement” to pop up on my radar. Initially they had a timer counting down until their launch, but today, the site is all but empty. Highlol.com was another website that tried to create buzz around the Stage6 collapse. They promised free HD DivX downloads, but there still aren’t any videos on the site today.

Having already been burned a couple of times, you can understand why I tend to be skeptical about these sorts of promises. With DivX Inc. having come out and denied any affiliation with the site, I can’t help but wonder how far they will let this get before they try to shut it down. On the other hand, because DivX benefits from having more of their content out there, maybe they are really better off ignoring it. Still, if DivxIT does gain traction, DivX might not be so happy about someone copying their site, especially when they don’t seem willing to sell it to begin with. If DivX does try to go the hostile route, I think that they may be up against more than they realize.

According to my sources, the creator of DivxIT is a part of the social revolution group, Anonymous. I wasn’t able to confirm whether DivxIT is the brainchild of a solitary fan or if it is part of the larger movement, but I do think its worth noting that Stage6 was hacked earlier this year. Whoever hacked the site posted membership information online, but I don’t know whether or not they would had access to the GUI. April 29th may still end up being a bust or just a cheap knock off, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this turns out to be an exact replica of the Stage6 website.

I was also able to learn that prior to setting his sights on web video, DivxIT’s mystery founder also created the MyVideoTab.com website. MVT looks like a great resource for anyone who is interested in learning how to play cover songs off of the internet, but its ownership is also shrouded in mystery.

Even before Stage6 shut down, there was already a Stage6 clone in China, but trying to watch videos from the US brings back terrible flashbacks of 26k dial up connections. If I was going to launch my own clone, I would have gone with the 6egats.com ;) domain instead, but someone beat me to that one already. We may end up getting punked with some wacky Scientology video on the 29th, but it will be interesting to see how this ends up playing out.

Update - So much for my conspiracies about black helicopters. It looks like DivxIT and DivX have worked out a deal for the new site. DivX must have asked them to change the name to something less confusing though because the new site will now be launched at Vreel.net. The launch was also postponed until May 6. On the Vreel website they have a FAQ where they say that their “database will be built from the ground up from day one onwards.” They also thank DivX for being cool about working out a deal with them.

Posted in SA, DivX, VOD | 2 Comments »

Lawyers Guns & Money: Can DivX’s Safe Harbor Protect Them From Stage6 Pirates?

February 7th, 2008 Davis

DivX took a step closer to being forced to walk the plank after suffering their first legal setback in their copyright dispute with Universal Music Group. In a legal filing published late Tuesday night, Judge Dana Sabraw dismissed DivX’s request to declare Stage6 legal, ahead of their UMG piracy trial.

The dispute originally started in December 2006, when UMG notified DivX that several of their videos were showing up on their Stage6 website. In the original cease and desist letter, UMG didn’t provide DivX with a list of the infringing videos, but still demanded that DivX remove all Universal content. A month later, UMG sent a second letter, only this time identifying specific videos that they had problems with. DivX promptly removed the videos in question and didn’t hear from UMG’s legal department for another 8 months.

After this 8 month period of awkward silence, UMG approached DivX and agreed to license their content, albeit at a very steep cost. In order to atone for their past sins, UMG wanted DivX to pay them $30 million.

Sensing a shakedown, DivX balked at the deal and decided to take their chances in court. They had fully complied with all of the provisions of the DMCA and if UMG wanted to punish them, they’d need to attack the DMCA’s safe harbor provision to do it. After calling their bluff, UMG dragged their heels on filing a lawsuit, but the potential threat for conflict still created a real problem for DivX. With the company trying to spin off their Stage6 asset, these storm clouds of uncertainty cast a long shadow over the legality of their Stage6 operations.

With UMG threatening legal action against the site, DivX was forced to choose between trying to sell the asset at a discount or trying to see if they could ride this storm out. With UMG seemingly content to continue to accrue alleged damages, DivX felt compelled to ask the courts to rule on whether or not Stage6 was protected under the safe harbor provision.

DivX took a huge risk by pushing this issue. If they are right then their wager will certainly pay off. If the courts can establish the legality of their Stage6 website, it would remove a lot of the uncertainty surrounding the business and would allow potential suitors to feel more comfortable about its long term potential. If DivX is wrong though, the consequences could be severe.

Six weeks after DivX filed for declaratory relief, UMG finally made good on their threat and filed a lawsuit against DivX accusing them of piracy. By bringing DivX up on charges, they were able to successfully argue that their trial was a more appropriate venue for this question to be answered. While this does represent a set back for DivX, I doubt that the result was entirely unexpected.

Still, through legal maneuvering, UMG has been able to regain control over home court advantage and they’ve put themselves into a position where they can always settle or walk away if things start to look bad. Even if DivX sticks with the full court press, they may not end up with the declarations that they were hoping for. In the discussion section of the judgment, Sabraw sympathized with DivX, but couldn’t justify running a separate trial now that DivX is facing legal action.

“Defendants argue declaratory judgment is an incomplete remedy since this action does not include all parties to the lawsuit pending in the Central District. Furthermore, since Plaintiff cannot identify all copyrights at issue, Defendants argue the remedy in this Court is limited to adjudicating only the copyrights named.

The Court agrees with Defendants. Athough the fear of uncertain litigation may have initially justified Plaintiff in filing this action, Defendants have since filed a lawsuit in the Central District that eliminates the uncertainty. Moreover, the DCMA [sic] safe harbor analysis Plaintiff seeks here will be more completely and efficiently undertaken in the Central District, where the court will be able to determine Plaintiff’s compliance with respect to particular copyrights that Defendants identify in the course of those proceedings.”

While it may appear that DivX has lost round 1, the dismissal of this case won’t be the end of this dispute by a long shot. With the declaratory issue now out of the way, DivX will need to focus on defending themselves against UMG’s lawsuit. Even though DivX’s initial lawsuit has been dismissed, they’ll still get an opportunity to defend their website. Still, until DivX can reach some kind of resolution, the lawsuit will certainly make it more difficult for them to separate their Stage6 assets from their core business. With rising bandwidth bills, the credit crunch and legal questions surrounding this asset, it may be difficult for them to find a buyer who is willing to get involved in this kind of a dog fight.

Sensing that conditions weren’t right, DivX pulled back on their plans for Stage6 in December and in a press release announcing the resignation of Jordan Greenhall, they also warned that their Stage6 transaction wouldn’t be finished by the end of the year like they had planned. The company promised to update investors in the first quarter of 08′ and with DivX expected to report earnings soon, you can bet that Stage6 will be a hot topic on their next conference call. The plan that DivX management lays out, will be critical in determining how investors interpret their financial results.

Last quarter, investors rewarded DivX by focusing on their non-gaap growth and ignoring the Stage6 and compensation expenses. If DivX still plans on spinning off Stage6, then it’s fair for investors to ignore the rising bandwidth costs and focus on the value of the underlying asset.

If DivX’s legal battles really mean that they need to hold onto Stage6 in order to maximize its value, then investors may be in for a shock when they realize that Stage6 is really a long term investment. Facing the prospect of a drawn out legal battle, they may not take as much comfort in “one time” charges or expenses.

The answer to the Stage6 riddle isn’t an easy one, but after years of profiting from their popularity in the pirate community, it’s ironic to see DivX’s finally starting to feel some heat over the activities of their community. Even beyond the copyright liabilities, there is a significant cost for DivX to foot the bill for pirated Stage6 content and I suspect that DivX isn’t anymore enthusiastic about piracy on Stage6, than UMG is. There’s no way to know how this all will end, but I have a feeling that its going to take longer than people expect, in order to sort it all out.

Posted in SA, DivX, Technology, Media, VOD | No Comments »